More Positions

Hi all.

Today, I'm just going to talk about a few of my positions and why they are good to buy.

FULL LIST OF POSITIONS

Precious Metals Stocks/ETFs:

Yamana Gold (AUY)

SPDR Gold ETF (GLD)

I AM GOLD (IAG)

Newmont Mining (NEM)

Southern Copper (SCCO)

Mkt Vectors Gold Miners (GDX)
Mkt Vectors Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ)

Silver ETF (SLV)

Gamco Natural Resources ,Gold ETF (GNT)
Silver Standard Resources (SSRI)
Silver Wheaton (SLW)

Here is a list of positions I am going to take in my portfolio. I think gold is in the start of a bull market after the correction from $1,900 to $1,500. Silver and other commodities are also well-positioned to make a new bull run, after their bear markets. Other commodities like corn and wheat, which have been holding strong over the past years due to bad weather conditions, are likely to do well along with other commodities. Therefore, looking at gold bouncing off its 50-day SMA as seen in the chart, I feel that it is timely to write a post like this. I expect to hold the aforementioned positions to next year or so after the indication that the commodity bull market is over. 

3 Biggest Positions: 

Berkshire Hathaway Cl. B (BRK.B)

Disney (DIS)

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)

I would like good anchors for the portfolio as the portfolio contains a variety of other small-cap stocks, which are deemed more risky. Therefore, a few stable, widow-and-orphan stocks would be ideal.

Berkshire Hathaway Cl. B

STRONG BUY

Price Target: $95

Price Now: $88.51

Low Risk

Berkshire Hathaway is the company that Warren Buffett owns, and I have mentioned that I owned this stock since early this year, when I started this blog. It was trading around $80 then, and if it goes down to that area for any reason, I would definitely accumulate more shares. I have confidence in Warren Buffett's doings and beliefs, and I believe that it will do good for the company as a whole. Although Bershire pays no dividends, in my opinion, it may actually be better if the company keeps the money for other operations instead of giving it to shareholders. This is a five-star stock to me and is rated as a strong buy by me, with a $95 price target. 

Walt Disney Co. 

BUY

Price Target: $55

Price Now: $51.79

Low Risk

People love entertainment, and they cannot live without it. Can you imagine a world without movies and music? The answer is no. Therefore, for this reason alone, Disney will continue to thrive in the years to come. Additionally, Disney is a pretty diversified stock, not only focused on films and TV shows, it also owns theme parks and sells items to consumers. We do not know where else Disney will try to make money out of, but what we know for sure is that this continued expansion will benefit shareholders over the long term. At 17 times earnings now, it may be considered slightly overvalued but its long term prospects are very favorable, with no signs of it losing popularity anytime soon. Disney also offers a 1.16% dividend that I believe, will be grown in the future like how it has always grown them before. This is a five-star stock by my standards and is rated a buy by me, with a $55 target.

Exxon Mobil Corporation

STRONG BUY

Price Target: $99

Price Now: $92.19

Low Risk

Oil is a precious commodity, on high demand nowadays. With so many uses, Exxon Mobil's sales are bound to grow over the long term. Management is also prepared for growth as they plan to invest $37B in capital and exploration spending over the next 5 years and has many plans to expand further. Having operations in Bakken and other oil-rich areas will prove to be beneficial to the company over the long term. Additionally, management have been purchasing shares in the past 10 years. In 2002 it had 6.7B shares outstanding, and now it has only 4.6B shares outstanding, which is a good sign, as investors now own a bigger portion of the company with the same amount of shares. Along with the fact that the company company has very little long-term debt (LT Debt/Equity: 0.05), this proves that the company is earning enough to give so much back to the shareholders and still have enough funds to expand itself. It also pays a palatable 2.47% dividend. Therefore, this a five-star stock by my standards and is rated a strong buy by me, with a price target of $99. 

Happy Trading

Kang Wei

3 Large Caps With Value, Strength And Stability

Hi all,
Yet another article for you. This time it is a list of 3 great stocks screened. Follow the link to read it
URL:http://seekingalpha.com/article/936881-3-large-caps-with-value-strength-and-stability

Happy Trading!

Article on Seeking Alpha

Hi all,
I am back with a new article for you. Follow the below link to read the article which is on Seeking Alpha.
Article: Jos. A Bank, Tailor-Made For Success

EZCORP (EZPW), A Great Value Play

I am back with an article for you. I am also trying to post this on Seeking Alpha. After EZCORP's CFO Stephen Stamp left the company, the stock dropped even more after already dropping quite a fair bit because of declining sales (mainly because of declining Gold prices). I think that it is oversold now.

EZCORP, A GREAT VALUE PLAY

With unemployment around 8% for the past 3 years or so, and the Dow hitting north of 13,500, and with the percentage of people bullish on the market now rising again, some may think that another correction may be imminent. So is there a way to benefit even if the stock market or the economy declines? The answer is an obvious yes, and there are many ways for one to do it, but the stock today is one example of a great recession-proof stock.

EZCORP (EZPW) is a pawn shop operator. Although it is commonly viewed as one of the more "low-class" financial stocks, it may be the one that is outperforming more famous financial stocks like J P Morgan Chase (JPM) or Morgan Stanley (MS).

A snapshot of the company's information:

Price (10.10.2012)	$19.29 (42.2% from high)
Market Cap	1.02B
Income (2011)	141.5M (P/E:6.94) (Forward P/E:5.99)
Sales (2011)	968.2M (P/S: 1.02)
Book Value per Share	$15.34 (P/B:1.26)
EPS Growth Past 5 Years	28.5%
ROE	20.07%
Current Ratio (Assets/Liabilities)	3.19

It is easy to see how much a bargain the stock is in terms of price at the moment, with a P/E of just 6.94 and a forward P/E of 5.99. Even so, EZCORP had seen EPS growth of 28.5% over the past 5 years, which is fabulous growth, and is likely to grow some more. It being expected to grow at a whooping 15% over the next five years. Along with the fact that recessions are inevitable and that many viewing places like EZCORP as places to get instant and easy-to-get money, all these reasons makes it a good choice for a long term investment that will serve an investor's portfolio well.

At a newly created 52-week low of $19.29, I'm sure one would like to know why it dropped so much before investing in it. The reason for this horrible drop is actually the drop in gold prices over the past year. As gold prices declined, EZCORP found itself buying gold previously at higher prices than how much it is selling it at now. Missing 3 earnings estimates in a row now, it is not favoured on Wall Street, especially given that its stock crashed more than 40% since its high, as stated above. But even so, it is still financially stable and growing very well in Mexico and Great Britain, where there are many more opportunities for it to grow, especially in South America, where it is still developing. Furthermore, with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announcing QE3, gold prices are expected to rise, which would also increase EZCORP's earnings. All these gives the company's stock huge potential to grow.

EZCORP's chart: 

Now that it is decided that the stock is one worth the buy, here is how to enter the trade.

EPS 2007	0.92
EPS 2008	1.21
EPS 2009	1.42
EPS 2010	1.96
EPS 2011	2.43
EPS 2012 (Est.)	2.79

With the company on its way to achieving its 2012 estimate of $2.79 per share, we shall use that number as a starting point for our calculations instead of using the 2011 number. Our aim is to achieve a 15% year over year gain for 5 years on EZCORP.

With an expected 15% growth rate, the calculations will be based on a more conservative 11% growth the EPS should be $4.92 in 2017 as shown by the chart below.

EPS 2013 (est.)	3.12
EPS 2014 (est.)	3.50
EPS 2015 (est.)	3.92
EPS 2016 (est.)	4.39
EPS 2017 (est.)	4.92

Assuming that its P/E ratio rises to its 5-year average of 11.29, its price would be at $55.55, 177% above yesterday's closing price. To achieve a 15% gain year over year, $27.62 is the maximum price that it can be bought at. Its price at the moment, more than 25% below $27.62, is obviously a Strong Buy to me.

But, as EZCORP is in a strong downtrend, it is advised that one does not put in all his money reserved to buy the stock into it immediately, or rather spread the money into portions and buy when it dips further. Here is a list of potential buy points to consider:

Price Now	$19.29
5% Lower	$18.33
10% Lower	$17.36
15% Lower	$16.40
20% Lower	$15.43
25% Lower	$14.47

(Eg, Buy 100 at $19.29, 100 at $18.33 and 100 at $17.36)

With the exception of failing businesses, a company's stock would not go down forever. Although EZCORP's price is in a downtrend and looks as if it may drop further, delve deeper into its background and one will find that it is actually a company with huge potential and one worth it to be bought on more dips.

Happy Trading

-Kang Wei

Position Update

I am short Manchester United (MANU) at $13.71, Long Eni (E) at
$43.94, Long Novartis (NVS) at $ 60.02 and Long Total S.A (TOT) at $49.52.

Stocks I am Considering:
Main Street Capital (MAIN)
Nestle (NSRGY)
Heineken (HINKY)
GAMCO Gold ... Fund (GGN)

My most successful position is my Facebook short position I initiated at $28.83. Now at $19.21, it is a 33.4% gain for me. Still holding it with a target price of $14.40, which will give me a 50% gain.

Risks: The market is a few points away from its 2012 top and it may be risky for some.

Happy Trading!

The VXX, And How To Profit From It

For those who are not familiar with the VIX, it tracks the volatility of the S&P 500 index. It is also often referred to as the "fear index" as it goes the opposite way when the market goes one way. As the market is going up these days (S&P 500 up 11.4% YTD) ,the VIX have dropped a lot, way below its normal trading range of 20-30,to around 15 now. The VIX has not seen these levels since 2006, when it fell as low as 10. On the other hand, during the 2008 recession, the VIX soared as high as 80 and in the two pullbacks in May 2010 and August 2011, to around 40
You can view the chart here: (http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX+Interactive#symbol=%5Evix;range=5y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;)

Onto our main topic for today, the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term FuturesETN (VXX), the ETN that tracks the aforementioned VIX, has lost up to 80% to $11.70, at a 52-wk low after hitting a peak of $60 during the 2011 August pullback. This means that if the market declines again like the past 2 pullbacks before rising to new highs (which is highly possible), the VXX is sure to soar. It may not rise as high as the high of almost $60 last August, but this could potentially be a multi-bagger. Another good buy is the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Fut ETF (UVXY), which tracks the VIX too, but is twice more volatile by the VIX itself. This means that if the VIX drops by2%, the UVXY is supposed to drop by twice more, or 4%. The UVXY is also at a 52-week low of $5.51 after hitting a top of $244.80 (split-adjusted) shortly after it was introduced last October. The UVXY would move about twice what the VXX would move, therefore, this ETF should only be traded if one is very sure about the market's direction.
But, even if your direction and your timing is correct, you could lose money in the VXX. If you did not already know, ETNs lose value automatically. If you compare the VXX chart above to the VIX chart in the link above, you would realise that the VXX drops much more compared to the VIX. This means that if your sentiment is correct but the action takes too long to unfold, you may also lose money. These are the reasons why I will never put more than 5% of my money in this ETN. How would I counter this? Well, options would be a good way to do this. By this way, you can hold shares and not lose money even as the VXX plummets.
What I would do is a collar. Buying a collar is equal to buying insurance for your   position. The ideal trade for the VXX, now at $11.70 would be:
SELL a Sep 2012 Call (strike price 15)
BUY a Sep 2012 Put (strike price 11)
BUY 100 shares of VXX

There are three scenarios where the VXX goes. Let me show you how you can profit from each of these ways.

Scenario #1, VXX falls below $11
If the VXX falls below $11, the call would expire worthless and you would get to keep the premium. Not only that, the put would be profitable too. These profits would neutralise your losses in the your VXX shares, and you may even pocket a profit, instead of a loss when you only buy VXX shares.

Short Call Profit
Long Put Profit
Shares Loss
Overall Profit

*Please note that the profits from the options may not be enough to neutralise the losses on the stock if the price falls too low. But, in the next scenarios, where the price is above $11, the overall return will surely be a profit.

Scenario #2, VXX rises above $11
If the VXX rises to around $14-$15 (I'll tell you why I put it in this range later), you would also profit. The call would expire worthless and you would get to keep the premium. The put, on the other hand, would expire worthless. But, you would not make a loss. The 100 VXX shares bought at $11.70 would give you a good profit.

Short Call Profit
Long Put Loss
Shares Profit
Overall Profit

Scenario #3, VXX rises above $15
You should immediately roll your short call to a new strike when the VXX price edges to $15. If the call option expires above $15, you would be required to deliver the shares to the call-buyer at $15 and the put would expire worthless. Although you could still make a profit, the shares would be lost. Remember, the aim was to HOLD shares without losing money, not lose shares after gaining money. Therefore, one should roll the strikes of the call up every time the shares reach around $14.70, in the VXX's case. I would roll the call up by $3-$5, so I do not have to do this too frequently.

Short Call Profit
Long Put Loss
Shares Profit
Overall Profit


You can do this repeatedly as months pass. After the September options expire, you could do it on the October ones, then the November ones, for as long as you want. This may sound very easy, but you will not understand its difficulties before you try it out yourself. I encourage you to use a simulator before trying out with real money. Here is a good article about this method from Optionetics, describing the both the method and the difficulties more in depth: (http://www.optionetics.com/marketdata/article.aspx?aid=15510)

Finally, I would like to wish Singapore, my country, a very Happy 47th birthday.

Happy Trading!

Cup & Handle??

There is an evident and very nice cup and handle pattern forming in Express Scripts (ESRX). This one would be a buy once it closes above $59.50. I also recommend an article from seeking alpha about Seagate Tech (STX), with the opportunities that it presents. Below is the URL.
URL:http://seekingalpha.com/article/768511-seagate-technology-investors-are-missing-the-point

That's all for today!

Happy Trading!